18/06/2010
From the Press Office of the World
Bank in Brasília
Brazil could reduce its gross greenhouse gas emissions
(GHG) by up to 37 percent between 2010 and 2030, while
at the same time maintaining the development goals set
out by the government for that period, without negatively
affecting growth or jobs, says a new World Bank study
of low carbon development scenarios in Brazil. This would
be the equivalent of taking all of the world's cars out
of circulation for three years. The study was launched
yesterday (June 17), in Brazil's capital Brasília,
during a seminar attended by several ministries and research
centers.
"Brazil is one of the leading nations
at climate negotiations, it has one of the cleanest energy
matrixes and is offering creative and constructive solutions
both at the global and national levels, as is demonstrated
by our voluntary commitment to reduce emissions by between
36.1% and 38.9% by 2020", said Izabella Teixeira,
Environment Minister. "This study joins a list of
others proving Brazil's potential. However, our 2005 emissions
represented barely 6.6% of total global emissions. The
developed world is responsible for the largest share,
and needs to contribute directly and proportionally to
the solution of this problem."
The Brazil Low Carbon Study indicates
that the country has a great opportunity to mitigate and
reduce emissions, mainly in areas such as changes in land
use (like agriculture and deforestation), energy, transportation
and waste management. In each of those areas, the study
identifies opportunities to reduce emissions that would
have no impact on economic development. The efficiency
of those activities is measured against a reference scenario,
tracing the current path into the future while incorporating
different development levels. Reaching that low carbon
scenario would require additional investments of around
US$ 400 billion over twenty years.
According to World Bank Director for
Brazil Makhtar Diop, "certainly, consolidating this
emission reduction scenario is a great challenge in terms
of planning and financing. However, the Brazilian economy
would be positively affected. Results show a boost in
annual GDP growth and job creation. Taking everything
into account, doing nothing would be more costly - both
in terms of the national as well as the global impact,
and the need to adapt to climate change."
Approximately 40% of Brazil's gross
carbon emissions come from deforestation, even though
recent efforts from the government to protect forests
have significantly contained that number in the last few
years. Together with agriculture and livestock raising,
75% of Brazilian emissions derive from changes in land
use.
"Avoiding deforestation is by far
the best option to reduce GHG emissions in Brazil",
said Christophe de Gouvello, report coordinator. "The
Brazilian government has been fighting deforestation through
forest protection policies and programs, but it also has
the opportunity to use other instruments - such as increasing
the use of pastures and reintegrating degraded areas to
the production cycle, avoiding encroachment on new areas."
According to the study's estimates,
a new land use dynamic in Brazil would reduce deforestation
by up to 68% by 2030, compared to the reference scenario
estimated for that same year. According to the report,
market mechanisms would not be enough to take advantage
of all the opportunities Brazil has to mitigate emissions.
Public policies and planning are essential, especially
with regards to managing land competition and forest protection.
In the energy sector, given that emissions
in Brazil are already relatively low due to its renewable
matrix, opportunities for reduction are lower. It is estimated
that the share of that sector's emissions will continue
to grow along with the economy, and may reach more than
a quarter of the country's total emissions by 2030. Therefore,
even if the actions suggested for a low carbon scenario
are carried out, such as increasing ethanol exports, achieving
energy efficiency in industry and regional integration,
emissions would still be approximately 28 percent higher
in 2030 than 2008.
As with energy, the Brazilian transportation
sector is mentioned in the report as a low-carbon-intensity
sector in comparison to other countries, due to the widespread
use of ethanol. Nevertheless, the fossil fuels used in
transportation accounted for 12 percent of all CO2 emissions
in 2008. Public transportation policies in cities and
multimodal distribution for regional transportation could
reduce emissions by 26 percent and 9 percent, respectively,
by 2030. Combining these with an increased use of ethanol
could possibly double these reductions. Implementing this
low carbon scenario for the transportation sector would
mean lowering the rate of emission increases attributed
to the sector, from almost 65 percent to less than 17
percent by 2030.
With respect to waste management, which
accounts for the lowest share of Brazilian emissions,
4.7 percent in 2008, the report recommends the systematic
burning of methane, better planning, more investment and
incentives to manage landfills and other collection and
processing services. The implementation of adequate policies
could reduce sector emissions by up to 80 percent by 2030,
a volume comparable to Paraguay's entire emissions.
"The sum of all the necessary investments
for each sector and the collateral effects on the rest
of the economy would counterbalance the potential negative
effects and even promote growth and job creation. As an
investment, the low carbon scenario generates profits
in three ways: economic growth, long term environmental
sustainability and global benefits", Diop added.
The Brazil Low Carbon Study is part
of a series of analytical works on low carbon development
scenarios for several countries. The World Bank recently
published the Global Development Report on Climate Change
and the Latin America and the Caribbean Report on Low
Carbon Development.
